Securities Times reporter Liu Canbang

More and more signs show that the photovoltaic industry is transforming towards higher efficiency N-type technology. The core of N-type technology is battery, and the mainstream directions include TOPCon, HJT, IBC, etc. Leading photovoltaic manufacturers continue to break through the efficiency of N-type cells, and upstream and downstream companies have successively launched N-type silicon wafers and modules. The industry consensus on the arrival of the first year of N-type photovoltaic commercialization is forming.

In terms of N-type photovoltaic capacity planning, according to estimates, as of the first quarter of this year, the declared production capacity of TOPCon and HJT has exceeded 140GW. At present, JinkoSolar has the largest production capacity of TOPCon, which is about 16GW, followed by Jolywood, Jietai Technology, etc.; HJT has the largest production capacity of Huasheng New Energy, which also includes Tongwei Co., Ltd. and King Kong Glass. Wait.

Judging from the recent module bidding situation, N-type photovoltaics have emerged. China Huaneng's first batch of centralized procurement projects in 2022 specially set up an independent bidding section for N-type modules. Two companies, JA Solar and Yiyi New Energy, were shortlisted. JinkoSolar has also received 1GW and 550MW of N-type module orders from Datang Group and State Power Investment Corporation respectively.

The momentum of N-type photovoltaic reform is quite huge, at the same time, photovoltaic production capacity based on P-type PERC cell technology still occupies the largest share. All parties are concerned about the progress of N-type replacement for P-type. According to reporters’ interviews, the share of N-type photovoltaics will gradually increase. In the next 2 to 3 years, there will still be enough space for PERC technology; of course, if the cost of N-type technology is reduced. More than expected, its replacement progress for P-type photovoltaics will also accelerate.

The supporting industry chain is becoming more and more perfect

On May 19, Zhonghuan Co., Ltd., one of the silicon wafer leaders, announced the price of N-type monocrystalline silicon wafers for the first time. LONGi Green Energy, which is also the leader of silicon wafers, stayed on May 27. type silicon wafer. From the official website of LONGi Green Energy, the company can already provide P-type and N-type silicon wafer products. The description of P-type products is "mature process, mature equipment, and mature production lines", while the description of N-type products It is "high-efficiency products and continuous improvement of production capacity".

Zhonghuan Co., Ltd. is the first to announce the price vane of N-type silicon wafers, which is of great significance. First, it means that the entire photovoltaic industry is preparing to meet the technical needs of N-type cells with higher conversion efficiency, and the photovoltaic N-type era is accelerating.

Second, the silicon wafer market has maintained a duopoly pattern for a long time, and the pricing power is concentrated on the two companies, LONGi and Zhonghuan. Zhonghuan took the lead in releasing N-type product quotations, and has further consideration for pricing power. In terms of production capacity targets, the gap between the two scales will be further narrowed.

As far as the photovoltaic industry chain is concerned, N-type technology is mainly concentrated in the battery link, and photovoltaic cells are also the first to shift to N-type, along with photovoltaic modules. The reporter noticed that just one day before Zhonghuan announced the price of N-type silicon wafers, JA Solar released its first N-type module product; at the end of May, Yidao New Energy also announced the price of N-type cells and N-type modules for the first time.

The switch to N-type photovoltaics also needs the support of upstream silicon materials. Although domestic manufacturers have the ability to produce N-type silicon materials, the silicon materials used for N-type silicon wafers are mainly imported. Domestic silicon materials companies need to increase their efforts to develop N-type silicon materials. material. From this perspective, there is still room for further improvement in the N-type photovoltaic ecosystem.

There are various indications that the current upstream and downstream of the industrial chain are building momentum for N-type photovoltaics. The relevant person in charge of JinkoSolar said in an interview with a Securities Times reporter that technological upgrading is the main theme of the development of the photovoltaic industry, and N-type, as the next generation photovoltaic cell technology, is being accepted by more and more enterprises and the market. "We believe that 2022 will be the first year of commercialization of N-type technology and high-efficiency N-type components."

Song Dengyuan, CTO of Yidao New Energy, also holds a similar view. He believes that from the perspective of the current supply chain of photovoltaic cell equipment and the highest cell efficiency that can be achieved by the passivation principle, TOPCon technology in N-type cells is the most suitable for photovoltaic industry upgrades. The technical route of high-efficiency batteries, the first year of TOPCon technology has arrived.

"N-type cells are about to usher in a development window period, and cost performance is still the core concern of all parties in the industry chain." Wang Jian, director of the new energy department of TrendForce, told reporters that at present, the mainstream battery technology in the market is still PERC, but This technology is limited by the limited growth in conversion efficiency, and the room for reduction of non-silicon costs and production line equipment investment costs is limited, while N-type cells have higher conversion efficiency. After years of verification in the industry chain, the production capacity will be released this year.

The relevant person in charge of JA Technology told reporters that the existing PERC cell module products still have the best price/performance ratio. The N-type high-efficiency cell modules released by the company are in line with the technical trend of market development. With the continuous improvement of N-type cell efficiency and yield rate And as the cost continues to decrease, the market share of N-type modules will gradually increase.

The person in charge told reporters that the N-type module DeepBlue 4.0 X released by the company adopts N-type Bycium+ passivation contact cell technology, which is actually a kind of TOPCon technology.

N-type technical routes tend to be diversified

The development of the photovoltaic industry pursues a lower cost per kilowatt-hour. In order to achieve this goal, it is necessary to obtain higher conversion efficiency through technological progress and continuously reduce the manufacturing cost. In the past two years or so, the direction of photovoltaic technology iteration is firstly large silicon wafers, and secondly, N-type cells. However, the N-type battery is not mature enough in the early stage, and the large silicon wafer technology has carried the banner of photovoltaic cost reduction.

N-type photovoltaics already have the conditions for landing. As Wang Jian said, the new cell technologies represented by TOPcon, HJT and HPBC are now ushering in a window period for development. Cost reduction and efficiency improvement, and coordinated development of industrial chain support are still new technologies. the main melody.

However, the rhythm of N-type photovoltaic mass production of various technical routes is different. Since most processes are compatible with the existing mainstream PERC technology, TOPCon is an N-type route with rapid progress; the market has been paying attention to HJT for a long time. Although the process is simple, the core links PECVD and CVD are completely different from the previous manufacturing process, and the production capacity improvement speed is not as fast as TOPCon. From the mainstream situation, most of the leading photovoltaic manufacturers embrace TOPCon, and HJT is more favored by new players.

In response to this situation, the person in charge of JinkoSolar said that compared with PERC technology, TOPCon has higher conversion efficiency, better bifacial ratio, temperature coefficient and other performance; at the same time, compared with HJT, IBC and other technologies, it is more cost-effective and can be mass-produced The technology is more mature. "The upper limit of theoretical efficiency of N-type TOPCon battery is higher, and it has greater potential for efficiency improvement and cost reduction than P-type."

Wang Jian also pointed out that the current TOPCon battery has started mass production. At this stage, HJT still has difficulties and pain points such as high cost and unclear cost reduction path. However, its technological process is simple, its theoretical efficiency is extremely high, and it can be stacked with other battery technologies. In addition, although there are fewer participants in IBC, the theoretical cost is lower (especially the P-type). It is expected that the three routes will coexist in a certain period of time.

The reporter noticed that last year, LONGi Green Energy also announced that it will take the lead in mass production of TOPCon batteries by the end of that year. However, the LONGi TOPCon battery did not proceed as originally planned. Zhong Baoshen, chairman of the company, explained that the company has a better technical solution and would rather wait rather than take the lead in battery technology. At present, LONGi remains tight-lipped about its new battery technology route, but it is expected to achieve mass production in the third quarter of this year.

Huasheng New Energy is a representative of the HJT route. The first batch of cells and modules of the company's second phase 2GW high-efficiency microcrystalline heterojunction project has been successfully produced, and it is planning to build a third phase of 4.8GW double-sided microcrystalline heterojunction in Xuancheng, Anhui. Knot smart factory project. At present, the civil tender for the project has been launched, and all equipment will be moved in and commissioned and put into production in two phases in the first three quarters of 2023.

Among the mainstream battery manufacturers, Aixu has chosen a route different from TOPCon or HJT. The company launched the successfully developed ABC battery in June 2021, and the average mass production conversion efficiency is expected to reach 25.5%. The 6.5GW ABC battery mass production project in Zhuhai is expected to be put into production in the third quarter of this year.

It can be seen that both are N-type batteries, but the internal technical route is becoming more diversified. The person in charge of JinkoSolar said that the leading photovoltaic companies have relatively mature R&D background and technical layout, and look forward to seeing a pattern of blooming flowers, and all major players will take greater responsibility for the global low-carbon and clean energy strategy through technological innovation.

The person in charge of JA Technology said that HJT, TOPCon and IBC technologies are currently being researched and practiced by different manufacturers. They all have higher cell efficiency, which is more than 1% higher than that of P-type, and the product performance is optimized. It has more excellent power generation performance at the power station end. "But at present, in terms of integrated single-watt cost, N-type is still higher than P-type to varying degrees. How to choose these battery technology routes is formulated according to different manufacturers' own development and product strategies."

Of course, choosing a technical route does not mean abandoning other solutions. JA Solar revealed that the company is also paying attention to the mainstream high-efficiency battery technologies such as HJT, IBC, perovskite and laminate in the market. Currently, HJT and IBC technologies are in the R&D pilot stage, and the performance indicators are in line with the R&D design expectations and are progressing smoothly. JinkoSolar said that the company adheres to the concept of "exploration generation, research and development generation, mass production generation", various technology research and development in the laboratory go hand in hand, and there is a wealth of technology upgrade reserves on the mass production side.

The planned production capacity is nearly 300GW

During the interview with reporters, a number of leading photovoltaic companies revealed their N-type production capacity plans. For example, JA Technology said that in the third quarter of this year, the company's N-type production capacity will reach 1.3GW, which will be further increased to 6.5GW by the end of this year. In addition, the company reserves 15GW of N-type production capacity in 2023. "The company's N-type capacity planning is at the level of first-tier suppliers in the industry."

JinkoSolar said that it has been in the TOPCon field since 2019, and has now put into production 16GW of large-size N-type TOPCon battery capacity. In the future, more N-type capacity will be put into production in a timely manner according to market demand and business rhythm. With a module shipment of 10GW, it will be the first PV company in the industry with an N-type production capacity and shipment of 10GW.

According to the calculation of Zhao Xiang, senior analyst of PV InfoLink, as of the first quarter of this year, the declared production capacity of TOPCon has exceeded 140GW, and the declared production capacity of HJT has also exceeded 140GW.

Zhao Xiang said that since the beginning of this year, the production capacity of TOPCon has increased significantly. By the end of the year, the cumulative production capacity (including those under construction) is expected to reach 50GW, and by the end of next year, it is expected to be close to 80GW. "The growth rate of HJT is also obvious. As more and more new photovoltaic players enter, the cumulative production capacity (including under construction) is expected to reach 15GW by the end of 2022, and it is expected to exceed 30GW by the end of 2023, achieving doubled growth."

According to rough statistics, the current TOPCon company with the largest production capacity is JinkoSolar, which is about 16GW. The reporter was informed that Jinko will have more new production capacity input before the end of the year; Jolywood shares ranked second, its Taizhou and Shanxi bases have 7.6GW TOPCon production capacity, and plans to have 4GW production capacity by the end of the year; Thailand Technology (8GW), Jiangsu Runyang (5GW), JA Technology (1.3GW), etc.

In terms of HJT, the manufacturers with the largest production capacity at present are Huasheng New Energy, Tongwei Solar, King Kong Glass, etc. According to estimates, among the 15GW HJT production capacity that can be realized by the end of this year, it is expected that 3GW will be R&D or pilot lines, which can actually be batched. Only about 12GW is produced.

There are also equipment suppliers who are concerned about the changes in N-type capacity. They need to closely track the customer's capacity planning and whether their own equipment supply capacity meets the needs. To a certain extent, the estimates of equipment manufacturers are more optimistic.

Jinchen Co., Ltd. predicted that there will be about 25GW of new equipment orders for HJT projects in the industry this year, and it is estimated that there will be 40GW~50GW of new equipment orders next year. In terms of TOPCon, it is estimated that 80GW~100GW of new lines will be built this year; next year, in addition to the expected 100GW PERC upgrade and transformation TOPCon, there will be 120GW of TOPCon new lines going online.

To this end, major N-type equipment suppliers are expanding their production capacity. In response to HJT and TOPCon equipment orders, Jinchen recently stated that HJT and TOPCon technology, as high-efficiency battery technology routes, are at the end of the research and development stage, and it is expected to start market sales in the fourth quarter of 2022.

In March this year, Maiwei shares said that the company's HJT equipment capacity is currently overloaded, and the company leases new workshops to meet customer order requirements. The company has obtained a construction permit for the first phase of the 85-mu project, and the construction unit has entered the site for construction. It is expected to be put into operation by the end of this year and early next year.

In terms of N-type silicon wafer supply, in addition to Zhonghuan, Jinko and JA Solar, which are vertically integrated manufacturers, are also strengthening the supply of their own N-type silicon wafer "ammunition". According to the person in charge of JA Technology, the company will also produce N-type silicon wafers to give full play to the advantages of vertical integration; JinkoSolar said that the company's production capacity integration rate will continue to increase this year, including the production of N-type silicon wafers. Continued production.

Huasheng New Energy is also one of the representatives of expanding N-type silicon wafers. While increasing the production capacity of HJT cells, it established a new material subsidiary with the core goal of preparing thinner and more refined N-type silicon wafers, focusing on special silicon wafer slices The development and application of technology, the current first phase of the project plans to achieve a production capacity of 1.8GW.

N-type replacement process started

The advantages of N-type technology are concentrated in having higher conversion efficiency, and the core issue of concern to all parties is the replacement process of N-type for P-type. Zhao Xiang said that PERC is still the mainstream battery technology in the next three years, but the production capacity of high-efficiency battery technology has increased significantly. If the cost-side reduction of high-efficiency battery technology exceeds expectations, the high-efficiency battery technology will accelerate the replacement of PERC batteries.

According to JinkoSolar's judgment, at this stage, TOPCon technology is leading in terms of efficiency and cost-effectiveness, and has a high space for efficiency improvement and cost reduction, and will have sustainable competitiveness in the next few years.

The person in charge of JinkoSolar further explained that at present, the conversion efficiency of TOPCon cells in mass production has exceeded 24.6%, and the module power is three to four gears higher than that of P-type modules of the same version. It is expected that N-type and P-type will be integrated after mass production. cost convergence. N-type TOPCon will be the company's main expansion direction, but there is still a certain market space for the existing P-type products.

Regarding the rhythm of N-type replacing P-type, JA Technology believes that N-type technology will be mass-produced in the next 2 to 3 years. However, thanks to mature process technology and complete supply chain capabilities, PERC cells will continue to grow in the future. It still has the best cost-effective competitive advantage, and will form a state where N-type and P-type compete with each other and make progress together.

At this stage, whether it is silicon wafers, cells or modules, the price of N-type products is slightly higher than that of P-type products of the same specification. This is one of the problems that needs to be solved in the large-scale promotion of N-type photovoltaics. Taking silicon wafers as an example, in the N-type quotation announced by Zhonghuan for the first time, the price of 210N-type silicon wafers with a thickness of 150 μm is 9.49 yuan/piece, while the price of P-type silicon wafers of the same specification is 8.95 yuan/piece.

Of course, N-type silicon drops 

Ben's path is also very clear, mainly using thinning technology. Taking Zhonghuan Co., Ltd. as an example, its 210N-type silicon wafer with a thickness of 130μm is quoted at 9.06 yuan/piece, and the price difference between it and a P-type silicon wafer with a thickness of 150μm has narrowed. The person in charge of JA Technology also said that thinning is an important means of reducing the cost of silicon wafers, and it is also an effective means of reducing the integrated cost of N-type products. At present, it has been verified that thinning within a certain thickness range has little effect on cell efficiency.

In the battery sector, there are more factors that affect the cost: on the one hand, the high investment in equipment, on the other hand, the increase in the use of related consumables. In terms of equipment investment, the investment of new TOPCon equipment is 150 million yuan/GW~200 million yuan/GW, which is about 50 million yuan higher than that of PERC equipment; the equipment investment cost of HJT is higher, about 350 million yuan/GW~400 million yuan /GW.

In terms of consumables, the use of silver and indium is the key to reducing the cost of N-type batteries. Zhao Xiang believes that in the short term, indium will not become a challenge for the development of HJT batteries, but if the production capacity of HJT exceeds 10GW, indium will definitely become a big bottleneck, and manufacturers need to strengthen recycling alternatives and indium-free technologies.

Regarding silver, various manufacturers are developing solutions to reduce silver consumption. According to Xu Xiaohua, chairman and general manager of Huasheng New Energy, at present, the silver consumption of the company's M6-12BB battery has dropped to below 150mg, and it is planned to reduce to 120mg in the third quarter of 2022. In 2023, silver-coated copper paste will be fully used instead of pure silver paste, and the consumption of a single piece of silver will be as low as 80mg.

It can be seen that all parties in the market are paving the way for the commercialization of N-type photovoltaics in terms of technical reserves, industrial chain coordination and overcoming high cost difficulties, and market acceptance is obviously a more critical factor.

A good phenomenon is that N-type modules have emerged in the bidding of central enterprises. Recently, Yiyi New Energy and JA Solar were shortlisted for China Huaneng's 2022 N-type photovoltaic module suppliers; JinkoSolar and Datang Group signed a contract to supply about 1GW of N-type Tiger Neo modules, and at the same time harvested a 550MW N-type from State Power Investment Corporation. Centralized collection of double-sided double-glass modules.

Yidao New Energy said that China Huaneng’s first batch of centralized procurement projects in 2022 specially set up an independent bidding section for N-type components, which is not only a response to recent market hotspots, but also a signal to the market. It is a central enterprise in promoting the industry’s key technology iteration process. It is a very important manifestation in the market and has the meaning of market vane.

JinkoSolar also pointed out that the above-mentioned contracted projects are the first large-scale ground power station projects of Datang Group using N-type modules; as one of the largest solar developers in China, SPIC has also begun to switch to more advanced N-type high-efficiency modules.